Thursday, May 21, 2009

BJP’s Himalayan Campaign Blunder

This might be perhaps first time in history of democratic elections that a party campaigned for their opponent and ensured its own defeat! Welcome to BJP’s campaign in this election. Nope I am not on banned substance. Let me prove how BJP inadvertently managed to campaign for  congress and ensured its victory. of course, secular channels will never tell you this.

Addressing a public meeting in Howrah district LK Advani said

''The proposed Third Front government is only a figment of imagination of the Left and its allies rpt Left and its allies which will never come true. Either the BJP or the Congress is going to rule at the Centre,''

Similarly addressing a public meeting in  south LK Advani Said

“I consider the Third Front a joke (mazaak) and a theory, while the Fourth Front is a farce because no one can form the next government at the centre without the BJP or the Congress,” 

At first glance, these might be innocent and factually correct statement coming from Leader of Opposition and one of tallest leader in Indian Politics. Guess what…. electorate also agreed with BJP and its campaign managers. In fact, during the election time common theme of discussion was …… “we donot care whether BJP/Congress wins but please don't let third front win”. In fact, people were petrified by the possibility of  Mayawati becoming PM of the country with the support of Left front. So in most of states, electorate voted for either Congress or BJP.

But what BJP campaign  managers didnot realise(how can they be so stupid!!!) that for BJP to win elections, BJP not only have to defeat congress but congress should also lose to Third/fourth front!

By taking a strong anti – third front position in states where BJP led NDA is non existed BJP actually helped congress to win those states. Lets see who were principal parties in areas where LKA made above two statements…. CPM led third front and Congress Led UPA… and BJP led NDA was not existent in most of those places. guess who won those states… congress.

In fact in places where BJP led NDA directly clashed with Congress Led UPA, NDA was marginally ahead!!!! Out of 19 States/UT where BJP Led NDA directly clashed with Congress Led UPA following was the results

- NDA Won convincingly in 10 States/UT winning 75 Seats

- Maintained tally or increased seats in 2 States winning 6 Seats

- Lost to UPA in 8 States/UT. UPA won 77 seats in these states/UT

In most of states where NDA lost to UPA, BJP was Junior partner in NDA coalition example being Punjab, Haryana and Maharashtra accounting for more than half the lost seats. ,

Details in the table below -

STATES / UTs (Seats)

Key Opponents


Andhra Pradesh   (42 / 42)

 UPA Vs Third Front

Third Front: 8(-4), UPA: 33(+4),

Arunachal Pradesh   (2 / 2)


NDA: 0(-2), UPA: 2(+2)

Assam   (14 / 14)


NDA: 5(+1), UPA: 8(-1)

Bihar   (40 / 40)

NDA Vs Fourth Front

NDA: 32(+21), Fourth Front: 4(-22)

Chhattisgarh   (11 / 11)


NDA: 10, UPA: 1

NCT of Delhi   (7 / 7)


NDA: 0, UPA: 7

BJP Defeated

Goa   (2 / 2)


NDA: 1, UPA: 1

Gujarat   (26 / 26)


NDA: 15(+1),

UPA: 11(-1)

Haryana   (10 / 10)


NDA: 0(-1), UPA: 9(0)

Himachal Pradesh   (4 / 4)


NDA: 3(+2), UPA: 1(-2)

Jammu & Kashmir   (6 / 6)

UPA Vs Others

UPA: 5(+1)

Jharkhand   (14 / 14)


NDA: 8(+7), UPA: 3(-7)

Karnataka   (28 / 28)


NDA: 19(+1), UPA: 6(-2)

Kerala   (20 / 20)

Congress Vs Third Front

Third Front: 4(-12), UPA: 16(+15),

Madhya Pradesh   (28 / 29)


NDA: 16(-9), UPA: 12(+8)

Maharashtra   (48 / 48)




This win is mainly because of vote split by MNS. The Congress party's vote share fell whooping 4.11%

NDA: 20(-5), UPA: 25(+3)

Manipur   (2 / 2)

UPA Vs Others

UPA: 2(+1)

Meghalaya   (2 / 2)

UPA Vs Others

UPA: 2(+1)

Mizoram   (1 / 1)

UPA Vs Others

UPA: 1(+1)

Nagaland   (1 / 1)


NDA: 1 (0), UPA: 0

Orissa   (21 / 21)

UPA Vs Third Front

Third Front: 6(+3), UPA: 15(+4)

Punjab   (13 / 13)







NDA: 5(-6), UPA: 8(+6)

BJP Junior Partner.

Overall, the BJP vote share remained largely intact . It fell marginally fom 10.48% in 2004 to 10.06 % this time. Even, its senior ally, the Akali Dal reflected a minor slide in its vote share from 34.25 % in 2004 to 33.85 % this time

Rajasthan   (25 / 25)


BJP Defeated

NDA: 4(-17), UPA: 20(+16)

Sikkim   (1 / 1)

Others Vs UPA

Others: 1(0)

Tamil Nadu   (39 / 39)

Congress Vs Third Front

Third Front: 12(-1), UPA: 27(+1)

Tripura   (2 / 2)

Others Vs UPA

Others: 2(0)

Uttar Pradesh   (80 / 80)

Congress Vs Third Front Vs Forth Front Vs BJP

NDA: 15(+1), UPA: 21(+12), Third Front: 20(+1), Fourth: 24(-11)

Uttaranchal   (5 / 5)


BJP Defeated

NDA: 0(-3), UPA: 5(+4)

West Bengal   (42 / 42)

Congress Vs Third Front

Third Front: 15(-20), UPA: 25(+18)




Andaman & Nicobar   (1 / 1)



Chandigarh   (1 / 1)



Dadra & Nagar Haveli   (1 / 1)



Daman & Diu   (1 / 1)



Lakshadweep   (1 / 1)

Others Vs UPA


Pondicherry   (1 / 1)

Congress Vs Third Front


So what do you say? …..

Tuesday, May 19, 2009

Congress Star rises thanks to superstars….

Its almost a month since I posted here and I am sure LK Advani would agree with me that one month is a long time in ones lifetime. Since, I believe that one should be humble atleast in defeat, let me start with a hearty congratulations to the Congress Supporters for their stunning electoral performance.  I am sure like BJP supporters they might be equally stunned.

By now every political pundit worth his/her salt might have already come out with every plausible  reason for the electoral performance of BJP. Let me also give my two cent worth

Myth 1: There was a Congress Wave!

The fact: In the decade between two Lok Sabha elections — in 1999 and 2009 — the Congress’s vote share increased by just 0.5 per cent to 28.6 per cent but its tally went up by 91 seats to 205 this time. 

Even this 0.5% increase can be attributed to increase in its vote share in UP from  mere 12% last time to 18.3% now.

Victory of congress has Déjà vu written all over. Congress owes this victory to split in non congress votes.  The Congress-led UPA has three men to thank for its seat surge in the 2009 Lok Sabha polls: Raj Thackeray, Chiranjeevi, and Vijayakanth. They helped the victorious alliance win nearly 50 more seats in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, and Tamil Nadu than anyone would have expected, as a result of which the UPA ended up with 262 seats, against the 222 it won in 2004

In Andhra Pradesh, YSR has Chiranjeevi to thank for the Congress' unexpectedly strong showing. The Andhra Pradesh results are an irony of these elections. The Congress registered a drop of 3.84% in vote share but an increase of four seats.  With Chiranjeevi's newly formed Praja Rajyam picking up an astounding 15.7% of the votes, however, the TDP suffered a sharp drop in its vote share from 33.1% to 24.9%, allowing YSR a comfortable ride back to power.

In Tamilnadu, Captain sank Amma’s ship. Despite contesting more seats this time, DMK and Congress between them managed to raise their vote share only a tad from a combined 39% last time to 40.1% this time. Even after adding the 2.4% that the Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK) added to the alliance’s tally. Vijayakanth and his Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK) got 10% of vote share. In fact, it seems that Tamil Nadu chose DMK, rejected Congress, In TN Congress won 08 seats against 10 seats in 2004 elections.

The third game-changer was Raj. His Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) did exactly what it was expected to do. It cut into Shiv Sena-BJP votes and helped the Congress-NCP alliance to victory in 10 constituencies. Considering that the MNS contested only 12 seats, its delivery for the Congress-NCP was almost 100%. The UPA registered a spectacular second successive sweep in Mumbai and won Pune and Thane thanks to Raj.

The vote share picture is interesting here too. The Congress party's vote share fell 4.11% in Maharashtra but its seat tally rose by four, to 13. In contrast, the NCP's vote share is up by a slender 0.97% but its seat tally came down by one, to eight.

Myth 2: This is end of road for Hindutva.

Fact: Nothing can be further from truth than this. Inspite of the best efforts of Secular Brigade consisting of Media and assorted chaddi activists BJP’s has held on to its bastions.

In Karnataka, its vote share has risen from 34.8% last time to 41.6%. In fact in Manglore novice Nalin Kumar Kateel humbled Congress veteran Janardhan Poojary by 40,420 votes. In MP, it still has 43% of Vote share, In chattisgarh, It has 47% of vote share etc.. etc. If this is a symptom of end of road, I donot see it.

Myth 3: Modi didnot deliver!

Fact: The secular media is at it again. Now they are saying that Modi has not delivered. Some even had the audacity of suggesting that BJP lost on the seat where Modi campaigned! Why… because the vote share of BJP in Gujarat decreased by 0.9%!!!! They conveniently forget the fact that vote share of congress also dropped 0.5%  and BJP has won 15 seats, 1 more than last elections!

Heard at the corridors of BJP……salla eak maachar aadmi ko hijda bana deyta hei