Thursday, May 21, 2009

BJP’s Himalayan Campaign Blunder

This might be perhaps first time in history of democratic elections that a party campaigned for their opponent and ensured its own defeat! Welcome to BJP’s campaign in this election. Nope I am not on banned substance. Let me prove how BJP inadvertently managed to campaign for  congress and ensured its victory. of course, secular channels will never tell you this.

Addressing a public meeting in Howrah district LK Advani said

''The proposed Third Front government is only a figment of imagination of the Left and its allies rpt Left and its allies which will never come true. Either the BJP or the Congress is going to rule at the Centre,''

Similarly addressing a public meeting in  south LK Advani Said

“I consider the Third Front a joke (mazaak) and a theory, while the Fourth Front is a farce because no one can form the next government at the centre without the BJP or the Congress,” 

At first glance, these might be innocent and factually correct statement coming from Leader of Opposition and one of tallest leader in Indian Politics. Guess what…. electorate also agreed with BJP and its campaign managers. In fact, during the election time common theme of discussion was …… “we donot care whether BJP/Congress wins but please don't let third front win”. In fact, people were petrified by the possibility of  Mayawati becoming PM of the country with the support of Left front. So in most of states, electorate voted for either Congress or BJP.

But what BJP campaign  managers didnot realise(how can they be so stupid!!!) that for BJP to win elections, BJP not only have to defeat congress but congress should also lose to Third/fourth front!

By taking a strong anti – third front position in states where BJP led NDA is non existed BJP actually helped congress to win those states. Lets see who were principal parties in areas where LKA made above two statements…. CPM led third front and Congress Led UPA… and BJP led NDA was not existent in most of those places. guess who won those states… congress.

In fact in places where BJP led NDA directly clashed with Congress Led UPA, NDA was marginally ahead!!!! Out of 19 States/UT where BJP Led NDA directly clashed with Congress Led UPA following was the results

- NDA Won convincingly in 10 States/UT winning 75 Seats

- Maintained tally or increased seats in 2 States winning 6 Seats

- Lost to UPA in 8 States/UT. UPA won 77 seats in these states/UT

In most of states where NDA lost to UPA, BJP was Junior partner in NDA coalition example being Punjab, Haryana and Maharashtra accounting for more than half the lost seats. ,

Details in the table below -

STATES / UTs (Seats)

Key Opponents

Notes

Andhra Pradesh   (42 / 42)

 UPA Vs Third Front

Third Front: 8(-4), UPA: 33(+4),

Arunachal Pradesh   (2 / 2)

NDA Vs UPA

NDA: 0(-2), UPA: 2(+2)

Assam   (14 / 14)

NDA Vs UPA

NDA: 5(+1), UPA: 8(-1)

Bihar   (40 / 40)

NDA Vs Fourth Front

NDA: 32(+21), Fourth Front: 4(-22)

Chhattisgarh   (11 / 11)

NDA Vs UPA

NDA: 10, UPA: 1

NCT of Delhi   (7 / 7)

NDA Vs UPA

NDA: 0, UPA: 7

BJP Defeated

Goa   (2 / 2)

NDA Vs UPA

NDA: 1, UPA: 1

Gujarat   (26 / 26)

NDA Vs UPA

NDA: 15(+1),

UPA: 11(-1)

Haryana   (10 / 10)

NDA Vs UPA

NDA: 0(-1), UPA: 9(0)

Himachal Pradesh   (4 / 4)

NDA Vs UPA

NDA: 3(+2), UPA: 1(-2)

Jammu & Kashmir   (6 / 6)

UPA Vs Others

UPA: 5(+1)

Jharkhand   (14 / 14)

NDA Vs UPA

NDA: 8(+7), UPA: 3(-7)

Karnataka   (28 / 28)

NDA Vs UPA

NDA: 19(+1), UPA: 6(-2)

Kerala   (20 / 20)

Congress Vs Third Front

Third Front: 4(-12), UPA: 16(+15),

Madhya Pradesh   (28 / 29)

NDA Vs UPA

NDA: 16(-9), UPA: 12(+8)

Maharashtra   (48 / 48)

 

 

NDA Vs UPA

This win is mainly because of vote split by MNS. The Congress party's vote share fell whooping 4.11%

NDA: 20(-5), UPA: 25(+3)

Manipur   (2 / 2)

UPA Vs Others

UPA: 2(+1)

Meghalaya   (2 / 2)

UPA Vs Others

UPA: 2(+1)

Mizoram   (1 / 1)

UPA Vs Others

UPA: 1(+1)

Nagaland   (1 / 1)

NDA Vs UPA

NDA: 1 (0), UPA: 0

Orissa   (21 / 21)

UPA Vs Third Front

Third Front: 6(+3), UPA: 15(+4)

Punjab   (13 / 13)

 

 

 

 

 

NDA Vs UPA

NDA: 5(-6), UPA: 8(+6)

BJP Junior Partner.

Overall, the BJP vote share remained largely intact . It fell marginally fom 10.48% in 2004 to 10.06 % this time. Even, its senior ally, the Akali Dal reflected a minor slide in its vote share from 34.25 % in 2004 to 33.85 % this time

Rajasthan   (25 / 25)

NDA Vs UPA

BJP Defeated

NDA: 4(-17), UPA: 20(+16)

Sikkim   (1 / 1)

Others Vs UPA

Others: 1(0)

Tamil Nadu   (39 / 39)

Congress Vs Third Front

Third Front: 12(-1), UPA: 27(+1)

Tripura   (2 / 2)

Others Vs UPA

Others: 2(0)

Uttar Pradesh   (80 / 80)

Congress Vs Third Front Vs Forth Front Vs BJP

NDA: 15(+1), UPA: 21(+12), Third Front: 20(+1), Fourth: 24(-11)

Uttaranchal   (5 / 5)

NDA Vs UPA

BJP Defeated

NDA: 0(-3), UPA: 5(+4)

West Bengal   (42 / 42)

Congress Vs Third Front

Third Front: 15(-20), UPA: 25(+18)

UNION TERRITORIES

 

 

Andaman & Nicobar   (1 / 1)

NDA Vs UPA

 

Chandigarh   (1 / 1)

NDA Vs UPA

 

Dadra & Nagar Haveli   (1 / 1)

NDA Vs UPA

 

Daman & Diu   (1 / 1)

NDA Vs UPA

 

Lakshadweep   (1 / 1)

Others Vs UPA

 

Pondicherry   (1 / 1)

Congress Vs Third Front

 

So what do you say? …..

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